A COMPARISON OF PROBABILISTIC METHODS FOR ASSESSING THE STABILITY OF GEOTECHNICAL STRUCTURES USING THE EXAMPLE OF THE LANDSLIDE SLOPE "TEKTONIK"

Authors

  • B.A. Chukin Institute of Geomechanics and Mining of the National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic Author
  • E.A. Kim Institute of Geomechanics and Mining of the National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic Author
  • R.B. Chukin Institute of Geomechanics and Mining of the National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic Author

Keywords:

Geotechnical objects, landslide slope, stability coefficient, Monte Carlo method, statistical linearization, normal distribution, confidence interval, engineering geology

Abstract

This article provides a comparative analysis of probabilistic methods for assessing the stability of geotechnical structures using the Tectonic landslide slope as an example. The authors compare results obtained using the Monte Carlo method, statistical linearization, and its refined version. The study found that the standard linearization method yields significant deviations from confidence intervals, while accounting for second-order terms in the Taylor series ensures high calculation accuracy. The study confirms the feasibility of effectively using the refined statistical linearization method for predicting the stability of complex soil masses.

References

1. СНиП 2.02.02-85 «Основания гидротехнических сооружений».

2. Беллендир Е.Н., Ивашинцов Д.А., Стефанишин Д.В. и др. Вероятностные методы оценки надежности грунтовых гидротехнических сооружений. - СПб.: ОАО «ВНИИГ им. Б.Е. Веденеева», том 1, 2, 2004.

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Published

2026-06-01

Issue

Vol. 21 No. 1 (2015): СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ МЕХАНИКИ СПЛОШНЫХ СРЕД

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