PROBABILITY FORECAST OF LANDSLIDE COLLAPSE TIME
Keywords:
Collapse time prediction, landslide monitoring, creep stage, probabilistic model, Saito method, Mailuu-SuuAbstract
This paper examines a method for probabilistically predicting the time of landslide slope failure (TSF) during the accelerated creep stage. Using the examples of the Tectonic and Izolit landslides (Mailu-Suu Mountain), the authors demonstrate that traditional deterministic methods often lead to erroneous forecasts due to the influence of stochastic factors and the chaotic nature of natural processes. The article proposes a mathematical framework using confidence intervals and probability density functions, which allows for determining the most probable range of slope "lifetime" and minimizing the risk of incorrect management decisions by the Ministry of Emergency Situations.
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