A BUSINESS-FOR-MADE SCENARIO FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GOLD MINING INDUSTRY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

Abstract

This article presents a forecast for the development of Kyrgyzstan's gold mining industry for the period 2013–2052, based on a business-as-usual scenario. Using financial and economic modeling for 32 deposits (including Kumtor, Jerooy, and Taldybulak Levoberezhny), key indicators are calculated: net present value (NPV), investment volume, and tax revenues. The authors identify three stages of the industry's evolution, with peak production in 2022 (up to 60 tons of gold) and a subsequent sharp decline after 2023 due to reserve depletion. Particular attention is paid to the social impact, including calculations of direct, indirect, and induced employment.