EXPRESS FORECAST OF LANDSLIDE SLOPE COLLAPSE TIME IN EMERGENCY CONDITIONS
Keywords:
landslide hazard, collapse time forecast, emergency situation, displacement monitoring, kinematic hodograph, reference network, deformation rateAbstract
This article presents a method for rapidly predicting the failure time of landslide slopes in emergency situations where primary data is scarce. The author describes a step-by-step procedure for organizing operational monitoring using reference networks, enabling the calculation of local deformation velocities and accelerations. Based on the method of kinematic hodographs and statistical parameters of subregional landslide dynamics, an adaptive algorithm for determining the slope "lifetime" is formulated. Factors affecting the reliability of predictive estimates are discussed, including the selection of approximating functions (e.g., the Gompertz curve) and the minimization of methodological errors in the installation of measuring stations at active sites.
References
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